For Republicans on the national front, election night was a good night. Not only did Donald Trump take every toss-up state and likely the popular vote, but Republicans were able to retake the Senate and maintain Congress. Trump improved his numbers in every state, including deep blue states like New York (11 points), with the only exception being Washington state. North Carolina had mixed results for its election night.
North Carolina moved less than almost every other state toward Trump this year, moving only two points as was the case with states like Georgia and Wisconsin. Republicans were able to expand their supermajority in the state senate by one seat and handily swept most statewide judicial seats (at the time of writing, Republican Jefferson Griffin was still leading the Supreme Court race by 3,000 votes). However, Republicans also lost half the Council of State elections, failed to retain a supermajority in the State House by one seat, and were unable to pick up the state’s sole toss-up congressional district.
North Carolina has voted for a Republican president in 11 of the last 12 presidential elections, yet the results of statewide elections in the state have been a mixed bag for the state. Democrats, for a long time, have held onto Council of State positions such as Secretary of State and the state’s Attorney General even when the state voted Republican for president. Though Republicans and Democrats have been able to flip other Council of State seats from time to time, it’s become normal for North Carolinians to split their ticket and avoid voting straight party line.
As Dr. Chris Cooper illustrates, North Carolina is in the minority of states, being one of seven that voted in both Republicans and Democrats on the statewide level. Of the toss-up states that had other statewide elections (North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania), only Pennsylvania did not split its ticket. But why did we see splits where we did, and why did some candidates lose while others from their party handily won their election?
The easiest way to explain this is that Republicans had an advantage when it came to generic statewide candidates. But in elections where Democrats could turn the election about the character of their opponent, they had a stronger shot of winning the race. In these character elections, most of the attacks were Democrats trying to attach their Republican opponents to Republican Gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.
Impacts of North Carolina’s Gubernatorial race on the Down Ballot
While there is little question that Robinson’s myriad of controversies is what led to his loss to Democratic Candidate Josh Stein, what was shocking was by how much he lost. Stein won the race by nearly 15% of the vote in a state where we refer to 5% victories as blowout elections. While Robinson had been falling behind in the polls throughout the year due to smaller controversies surrounding his wife’s business, clips that were cut from various speeches he gave, claims that he was a regular at a pornography store, the final blow to his campaign was the findings in CNN’s article regarding comments an alias affiliated with Robinson had made on the site.
These controversies lead from Robinson being able to outperform Trump in North Carolina in 2020, to finding what the floor (or subfloor) for the Republican base vote is. There are two impacts that Robinson had on other Republicans in the state; one was monetarily, and the other was giving Democrats the ability to make their election about Robinson. While the latter had mixed results, it did seem to find some success in Council of State races against those who could reasonably be attached to Robinson. In fact, much of the advertising we saw throughout the state from Democrats and organizations that supported them attempted to attach them to Robinson, including the presidential race.
In races where Robinson could be attached to the Republican candidate, this seemed to move voters against the Republican by making it a referendum on where they stand on his statements and controversies. However, in elections where Robinson could not be attached as easily to the Republican candidate and was more about the issues, the Republicans seem to have an advantage this year.
While it is hard to say just how much impact Robinson had on legislative and other down-ballot races, the monetary impacts are easy to see. Stein raised over $77.5 million through his gubernatorial committee and transferred over $12.2 million between the State Democratic party and legislative caucuses. This does not account for the money other candidates and Democratic committees were able to raise off Robinson’s controversies.
Transfers from the Stein campaign to other committees
Data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections Campaign Finance Reports Search
The money the state Democratic party received helped them not only out-spend Republicans but also transfer significant amounts of funds to North Carolina House, Senate, and statewide candidates.
The Impact of Third Parties
While it’s likely that Robinson had a negative impact on Republicans, it would be an oversimplification to say he was solely to blame for losses in some legislative seats and in the state’s lone toss-up congressional seat. In both several close legislative races and the First Congressional District, Republicans may have won these seats if a libertarian was not also on the ballot as the Libertarian vote exceeded the difference by which the Republican lost.
While there is no guarantee libertarian voters would show up or even vote for Republicans in those races, libertarians have traditionally lined up more with Republicans than Democrats in many of their policy preferences.
Overall, Republicans didn’t have as good of a night as they may have expected, but I would say they still had a very good night. This is considering the controversies surrounding Robinson and the significant financial advantage Democrats had over Republicans. The financial advantage can best bee seen in advertising where Republicans were outspent $277million to $196 million in the state.
The lessons you can take from North Carolina after this election are pretty simple: While money doesn’t win an election, it does help get your message out, North Carolina voters are not straight-ticket voters, and candidate quality is a major factor in statewide elections.
