The 2024 election has come to pass (apart from a few notable exceptions here in North Carolina, like the NC Supreme Court Race), and with it comes the favorite time of many election analysts: the autopsy. While we won’t have some data available till the county canvass 10 days after the election, this time can usually be used to analyze the results and figure out where some candidates succeeded and where others didn’t.
While that is still doable this year, there are a few hang-ups. Several counties appear to have more votes than ballots cast, while other counties appear to have election totals swapped between “Absentee By-Mail” and “In-Person Early Voting” (IPEV).
While we won’t have information on who cast ballots during election day till after the county cavass, we can analyze IPEVs and absentee-by-mail ballots. The counties that had more votes cast in the Presidential election than the number of ballots cast during early voting were the following:
- Avery: -30
- Bertie: -10
- Bladen: -21
- Gaston: -566
- Guilford: -1036
- Halifax: -81
- Hertford: -35
- Hyde: -6
- Lee: -165
- Mecklenburg: -1,854
- Montgomery: -37
- Onslow: -345
- Rutherford: – 17
- Swain: -41
- Tyrrell: -2
When asked about why these discrepancies may be accruing, NCSBE Communications Director Pat Gannon stated that the majority of them are likely from unprocessed “Same Day Registrations;”
“As to the “counties with too many votes vs. ballots cast,” the absentee file is not complete, nor will it be, likely until the canvass period is over. The county boards of elections continue to process same-day registrants and enter data into the system. We believe most of the difference between the absentee file and the reported results is due to unprocessed SDRs in some counties.
As I believe you know, election results reported on election night come from the memory devices in tabulators across the state. Those memory devices have no connection to the administrative tasks that result in population of administrative data in the absentee file. In other words, comparing that data with the results at this point in the process is not going to result in an apples to apples comparison in any election.
We will continue to research this and provide additional information as it becomes available.”
North Carolina saw 123,445 SDRs in this year’s election, with counties like Mecklenburg receiving over 11,009. The unprocessed SDR count could explain these discrepancies, but we will need to see the results after the county canvass.
Gannon was able to verify that the issue in Ashe, Craven, Green, and Pender counties of incorrectly attributing Absentee By-Mail and IPEV was able to be corrected this afternoon following it being brought to their attention.
Gannon assured that issues with the data would be resolved prior to the results being certified: “Election night results are always unofficial. As the county boards of elections continue with post-election processes, they will address any issues before certification.”
