Like most election analysts and reporters, lately, my focus has been solely on voter turnout patterns and the money going into North Carolina’s competitive races. This year, North Carolina plays host not only to one of the most competitive states for the electoral college but also to one of three competitive seats in the southeastern United States (the other two competitive seats are in Virginia).
Republicans have long sought to pick up the northeastern congressional seat, which hasn’t been held by a Republican since 1883. Much like other rural areas, the predominately rural northeast region of the state has been moving more in favor of Republicans over the years. Despite that, I was skeptical of Republicans’ ability to pick up the district given the incumbent, Don Davis, having a sizable financial advantage and higher name ID, heavy advertisement spending from the Harris campaign and other Democratic-aligned groups, and his overall coming across as a reasonably easy-to-get-along-with individual.
While Davis did have all these advantages, the current voting data could indicate that unless we see a massive shift in voting patterns, Republicans may finally take this seat that has eluded them for over 100 years.
What does Mail and Early voting data show?
When reviewing the 5th day of early voting for 2024, we find that the current iteration of Congressional District 1 is 30,055 voters behind where it was at the same time in 2020. The data used in this takes all 22 counties that make up the current Congressional District 1 with the only assumption made being the splitting of Granville Salem precinct voters being split due only half the precincts voters being in the district.
While the state has seen a decline in ballot participation from 2020, this decline is notable because registered Democrats are down 31,680 votes, while registered Republicans are up 2,540.
Table 1: Turnout Comparison for Congressional District 1 by Party Registration
While it would be easy to assume this decline is due to fewer people opting for mail-in voting than they did in 2020, that appears only to explain about half the decline in votes for registered Democrats up to this point. All parties have seen a decrease in mail ballot participation, but Democrats were the highest with 16,566. The other 15,112 decline in ballot participation by registered Democrats comes from early voting.
Table 2: Mail-in Ballot vs. Early Voting (One-Stop) Voting Turnout Comparison for District 1
Traditionally, Democrats have the highest turnout advantage during the first few days of early voting, while Republicans see an increase in ballot participation as we approach election day. Should this trend hold, Republicans could overtake Democrats during early voting this year.
Table 3: Statewide Turnout by Party for 2020 & 2024
Why the Decline Matters
Even though Democrats have seen a substantial decline, they still hold a lead of 47% to Republicans’ 29%. Wouldn’t that indicate that despite the decreased participation, they are still poised to take early voting? Looking at the 2020 data, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Considering the votes for all congressional candidates (2020’s Congressional Districts 1, 3 & 4) in the precincts that now make up the current Congressional District 1, the vote difference was 1.2% in favor of Democrats.
Table 4: Turnout and Results of Congressional District 1 from 2020 Congressional results data
With the difference in votes being only 4,577 votes, the current decline in registered Democrats’ voting could be detrimental. This is especially true when looking at how unaffiliated voters broke in this district during 2020’s early voting.
Assuming all Democrats voted for the Democratic congressional district candidate in 2020, this would mean that most unaffiliated voters in the district voted for a Republican congressional candidate.
There is still a long way to go between now and election day, and there is a possibility that electoral voting patterns can once again shift. There will need to be a significant shift in the First District’s voting pattern or unaffiliated voters’ congressional ballot choice if Don Davis is going to win reelection this year.
All data used in the article can be found below:
Early Voting Comparison: https://www.johnlocke.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/District-1-comparison-5.xlsx
Current Congressional District 1’s 2020 Congressional voting pattern: https://www.johnlocke.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Current-CD-1-election-results-analysis-from-2020-election-data.xlsx
