The big news through the first eleven days of early voting is that Republicans have jumped out to an unprecedented advantage. Since no one believes that Democrats will outvote Republicans on election day, that raises the question of whether Democrats can turn the early voting trend around during the last week of early voting.
Voter Registration Changes
The first full week of same-day registrations was also the first week of the pre-election registration surge that any registration type other than unaffiliated gained the most. As seen on the John Locke Foundation’s Voter Registration Changes page, Republicans had a net gain of 8,922 registrations compared to 6,333 for Democrats and 6,430 for unaffiliated. Unaffiliated is still well over its total at the same point in 2020, while both Republicans and Democrats are well behind there’s.
Even during election season, counties are removing registrations of those they can confirm have died, moved out of the county, or are otherwise no longer eligible to vote. The State Board of Elections (SBE) absentee_20201103.zip file includes same-day registration data of those who voted (a very small portion of people who registered at an early voting location but did not vote the same day). The total number of same-day registrations by party is 15,608 Republicans, 13,392 Democrats, and 12,319 unaffiliated.
Republicans Take an Unprecedented Lead in Early Voting
As seen at Vote Tracker, county election boards have accepted 2,820,668 ballots through October 20. The graphic below shows that county election boards misdated some returns.
A plurality of early and mail voters are Republicans, at 34.1 percent, compared to 33.3 percent for Democrats and 32.1 percent for unaffiliated. At a similar point in 2020, it was Democrats 40.4 percent, Republicans 30.0 percent, and unaffiliated 29.2 percent. Democrats had an even bigger advantage at a similar point in 2016, with them at 44.1 percent compared to 30.8 percent for Republicans and 24.9 percent for unaffiliated.
Republicans have come ahead in early voting on individual days, especially closer to election day, but this is the first time they have been ahead in total turnout during the early voting period. While Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 pace, the real story has been a dramatic decline in Democratic turnout; about 350,000 fewer Democrats have voted than at a similar point in 2020. Here are the turnout differences by party registration from 2020 to 2024:
- Democrats: -350,358
- Republicans: +3,726
- Unaffiliated: -25,937
Youth Vote Looks Very Different from 2020
Two things stand out when looking at voters aged 18-25. (The age on North Carolina voter rolls is based on how old voters will be at the end of the year. So, for example, some voters who will be 18 years old on election day will be listed as 19 years old.)
First, as for other voters, youth turnout is down. The 211,295 turnout for aged 18-25 voters so far this election falls well short of the 256,332 who had voted at the same point in 2020.
Second, the partisan composition of young voters looks very different. While there are about 10,000 fewer unaffiliated young voters in 2024 compared to 2020, the number of young Democrats has declined by an eye-opening 37,000. Republican young voters actually increased by about 1,600 from 2020 to 2024.
That difference is even more pronounced when comparing youth voting at early voting sites near colleges and universities (based on a list from You Vote)to those that are not. Of the 29,567 who voted on or near campus, 36.4 percent were Democrats, and 12.6 percent were Republicans, with 49.7 percent unaffiliated. However, of the 181,728 who did not vote at or near campus, 30.4 percent were Republicans compared to 26.2 percent who were Democrats, with 42.2 percent unaffiliated.
Absentee Ballot Requests
Here is today’s snapshot of absentee ballot requests with comparisons to similar points in 2016 and 2020, provided by the North Carolina State Board of Elections:
The difference in total ballot requests between the three elections makes it difficult to compare from one election to the next, so here is a comparison by percentage:
The Republican portion held steady at 25.4 percent of all absentee ballots, while the Democratic portion dipped from 35.0 to 34.7 percent, and the unaffiliated portion increased from 38.7 to 38.9 percent.
Since absentee ballot requests will not be very interesting on the day before election day, this is the last week this data will be reported.
North Carolina Presidential Polling Compared to 2016 and 2020
To get some context for all the polls we see for the presidential race in North Carolina, here is a comparison of the Real Clear Politics North Carolina presidential polling averages for eight days before election day, 2024, 2020, and 2016.
Trump won in North Carolina in 2016, 49.8-46.2 percent, and in 2020, 49.9-48.6 percent.
Comparing North Carolina Gubernatorial Polling to 2020
According to the average of the last five polls at 538, Josh Stein leads Mark Robinson 51.2-38.2 percent in the governor’s race. At a similar point in 2020, Roy Cooper led Dan Forest 52.4-42.8 percent. Cooper won that race 51.5-47.0 percent.
